Photo from:http://www.flickr.com/photos/28990363@N05/3267644932/
Pre tournament tips were for a another Springbok title, with the Aussies making up the numbers. But the Springboks have proved to be the joker in the pack this year, with three losses on the trot. And as they lost by pretty much the same margin in each match, does that mean New Zealand and Australia are fairly evenly matched? Before the Wallabies turned over the Boks I’m sure the AB’s had this weeknd down as a glorified training run.
The All Blacks are on a serious rebound after a poor middle of last year, they have haven’t put a foot wrong, starting with their overseas tour. Their pack is awesome again, the backs aggressive and incisive, and the whole team seems to be brimming with confidence. Dan Carter is back on song, he didn’t look himself in the Super 14 but is back to near his best.
The Wallabies had a terrible Tri-Nations last year, an up and down overseas tour, and ended with a loss to England in their last warm up, where in particular their scrum was demolished by the English. And as any Southern fan will tell you, the last Northern team you want to lose to is England. They’ve also last their star man Quade Cooper to suspension, and with a rejigged back line they could be exposed by Smith and Nonu.
The Boks showed briefly that the Aussie scrum isn’t fixed yet even if they weren’t smart or competent enough to exploit it. Benn Robinson looks about half fit and Stephen Moore about half of that again. So it could be a tough day at the office for the Aussie front row.
The All Blacks and the Wallabies have to be two smartest sides in the world. Smart is not a common accusation made against their Tri Nations partner, the Springboks, but the Boks usually have their own effective style of ruthless physicality to bring to the party. One major drawback of not having the South Africans involved this weekend is we don’t have any more fascinating post match interviews with Pieter de Villiers, the most quotable man in rugby. There’s the obligatory talking the opposition up going on: http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16024_6281221,00.html which is as much of the pre match tradition now as the haka.
So what’s it going to be? The Wallabies always raise their game for the All Blacks, and some of the finest Tri Nations matches have been between these two sides. I just think the All Blacks are smart enough to know how to exploit the Aussies weaknesses and so I’d tip them for a 7 point win.
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley Cooper, 14 James O'Connor, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom (c), 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Salesi Ma'afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Matt Hodgson, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Anthony Faingaa, 22 Kurtley Beale.
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan; 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Aviva Stadium opening
This weekend also sees the opening of the fabulous new Aviva Stadium in Dublin, the replacement for the old Landesdown Road. It’s a Leinster/Munster combination taking on an Ulster/Connacht team, with the emphasis as far as I know on development players so the rugby may not be of top order. But what a chance to get in and see the new place! http://www.avivastadium.ie/
My plan for tomorrow is to get in to the Wool Shed and catch the Wallabies/All Black match, and get over to the Aviva Stadium for the match.
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