Before we kick off (see what I did there) this a sobering IRB graphic from last year. Let’s hope the North comes up with a few more tries and a few more results this year. And my philosophical gem for today is from Einstein ‘If you think you can do something, or if you think you can’t do something, you’re probably right.’
Ireland versus South Africa
This match is the highlight of the weekend for me, possibly of the year. I support both teams heartily, when either score a try I’m up off the couch shouting YESSSSSSSSSS! at the top of my voice. This is generally followed by the sound of coffee cups dropping, children crying, dogs barking – as my wife says, ‘They can’t hear you, you know’, and as I reply ‘They can if you shout loud enough!’.
I’ll get off the fence straight away and say I hope Ireland win, that it’s a clean entertaining match with a few tries, and that South Africa put in a decent display and lose narrowly.
South Africa have a host of injuries, which is going to deny us a few key match ups. Schalk Burger is out, it would have added a lot of spice to see the him meeting up with Luke Fitzgerald again. Schalk really muddied his waters with that eye gouging. Before that, I had a lot of respect for him as a very hard but fair player, who is also renowned for making a point of having a beer after the match with the opposing team which means he numbers players like Jerry Collins amongst his friends. It’s a useful opportunity to return eyeballs as well, I guess. I’m not sure if Jean de Villiers is playing either, he’s in, he’s out, he’s shaking it all about – I really hope his does play as he’s a great player, and I’m sure he’d love to be coming up against his old Munster team mates.
Springboks absent through injury are: Jaque Fourie, Olivier,Juan De Jongh, John Smit, Andries Bekker, Fourie du Preez, Heinrich Brüssow, JP Pietersen, Gurthrö Steenkamp, Butch James, Schalk Burger, Ricky Januarie and BJ Botha. Du Preez is the one they really miss.
I’ve been waiting with interest to see who South Africa are going to play given all their injuries. Now I’ve seen it http://fb.me/tA8Sgwo8, It’s not an exaggeration to say their coach Pieter de Villiers is one of the hardest men in the world to second guess. With injuries to the only two specialist centers in the squad, a centre and a full back were called up. They have Kirchner in midfield, who while a fine player for the Bulls has never cut it at fall back for the Boks, never mind centre. He’s not a centre’s bottom. That selection could mean it’s pretty well game over for the Boks, especially as Jean de Villers is doubtful and his replacement is talented but bum fluff laden Pat Lambie. I would have preferred Hougaard to Pienaar at scrum half as well. Stegman is going to be a real handful at no 7.
It’s still a hard match to call as Ireland have their own important absences, in Paul O’Connell, Jerry Flannery and Tomas O’Leary (what is it about these Munster players, are they soft or something?:) and none of O’Driscoll, Earls, D’Arcy, Rory Best or Fitzgerald are fully fit either IMO. What is encouraging for Ireland is that both Leinster and Munster have been playing well in the last few weeks. They have a great record against South Africa at home too. Those Boks just don’t travel that well, they absolutely pumped England 42-6 at Twickenham a few years ago which I was fortunate enough to be at, but in the last 7 or 8 years that’s the only time I can remember when they played to their potential in the North.
For Ireland http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3558_6482220,00.html , I’d really like to Sexton to step up to the plate and show us what he’s got, I think Carney needs to start justifying his inclusion, and I would love to see some magic from the rest of the back line as well. Bowe, O’Driscoll, Darcy, Fitzgerald- that is one fierce line up. The pack needs to come to the party too, front up and dominate if they can as the Boks look pretty well up to strength there. I want to see Tony Buckley wow us this match.
I was going for a 10 point win for Ireland, but if this weather keeps up it’ll be a lot closer, so Ireland by 6.
England versus the All Blacks
Just time for a small whinge – who scheduled the Wales/Australia match at the same time as this? Are they keeping the Sabbath holy or something? This is a pretty mouth watering prospect. My rating system – see the post below – has New Zealand at 94% and England at 79% so according to me it should be a doddle for the All Blacks. They are about to release their not so secret weapon by this stage too, in the formidable shape of Sonny Bill Williams. I’m not sure about SBW TBH, I think he’s a bit of a show pony, or in his case a show orangutan. Whoa, going to have to be careful there, it’s all very well calling props fat but this guy could definitely out run me and make me pay for that. Does anyone else think his arms are too long though?
England could be fancying their chances against the All Blacks after their defeat to Australia, but that defeat was based on creativity, and Foden and Youngs are the only creative spark in this team, and I’d say Youngs is going to have All Blacks all over him like a rash. Where is Olly Barkley? Seriously lads, Barkley, if anything, is a better tackler than Giteau, and Giteau did alright in defense. Sheridans return will be a big boost though. I’m not a fan of Coles, think Thompson is past his best and think the midfield is uninspiring. I reckon these Autumn matches should be about youth, experimentation and dare I say it, entertainment. I really hope Youngs and Flood are going to be kept together now for a good long time.
For the All Blacks, I reckon SBW is an accident waiting to happen in defense, and I don’t know how Alby Mathewson is going to handle the pressure at scrum half. But I don’t think this England selection is going to trouble the AB’s, so I’m going for a 10 point win for the AB’s.
Wales versus Australia
The embarrassment of rugby riches on Saturday continues with this match. You wait all season for a decent match and then three come along at the same time. Australia have just beaten the top team in the world, so does this mean they are going to be doing a smash and grab in the North? I’m of the one swallow does not a summer make opinion about the Wallabies, their play has been characterised by inconsistency for the last few years, sure that won’t change in a week. They have potent attacking weapons in Cooper and Giteau, but both those guys can be very frail in defense, and Will Genia at scrum half is also prone to waving gently at passing players instead of tackling them.
Wales – apart from playing Hook at full back instead of centre – can I lodge an official complaint with Warren Gatland? – look pretty good. They’ve got some of the most exciting players in the world – Hook, Phillips and Williams, and I would love to see them really cut loose and show us something. They don’t have Martyn Williams in the starting 15 and that man Pocock could make them pay for that. This was on Twitter this week ‘Gatland says Pocock could be a threat at the breakdown. In other news, the moon is bigger than a pebble’.
My hunch is that the dancing feet are going to be left at home, and Australia are going to shade a close match. Hope I’m wrong… Half the problem for the North is the quote at the top ‘If you think you can do something, or if you think you can’t do something, you’re probably right’. If you don’t believe you can win, you probably right.
